Scotland one step closer to independence?

As I said on the other thread, personally I try and take a dispassionate view, as I think the referendum is a very good thing, and it's up to Scots themselves to decide, but is currency the missing piece of the jigsaw?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=1

I have to say I did find the article convincing. He sums up it up amusingly thus: "You may think that Scotland can become another Canada, but it's all too likely that it would end up becoming Spain without the sunshine."
 
Cyberus said:
is currency the missing piece of the jigsaw?
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Could be, if the financial side of it is all that matters to the voters. Not so in my case.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=1

I have to say I did find the article convincing. He sums up it up amusingly thus: "You may think that Scotland can become another Canada, but it's all too likely that it would end up becoming Spain without the sunshine."
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He makes some good points but overlooks some others:
The Scottish independence movement has been very clear that it intends to keep the pound as the national currency.
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Not entirely accurate. The SNP has been very clear that it intends to keep the pound. The Scottish independence movement is not just the SNP (although they are the largest political group) but made up of many groups and individuals who have a variety of opinions on currency.

My own opinion is that Scotland should move towards having its own currency.

Ideally, we will start to debate that in the run up to the next Scottish election and the electorate can choose. In the meantime we'd be stuck with Sterling regardless.
 
Cyberus said:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=1

I have to say I did find the article convincing. He sums up it up amusingly thus: "You may think that Scotland can become another Canada, but it's all too likely that it would end up becoming Spain without the sunshine."
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I find the words "without the sunshine" to be crucial in this context. Both Florida and Spain are prime tourist destinations which was a major contributing factor for their housing booms. Those 2.2 million unsold homes in Spain were primarily built for foreigners to live in. For comparison, Spain´s tourism industry generates about 15 times as much revenue as Scotland´s. (Florida´s tourism industry is slightly smaller than Spain´s but not by much.)

So, the risk for Scotland experiencing a housing boom that is similar to Spain´s is fairly low.

Also, it should be pointed out that Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom are far more economically homogenous and integrated than the Euro zone has ever been which means a shared currency is generally a lot less problematic. I do agree that using the GBP as Scotland´s currency is not ideal from a theoretical perspective. In practice, it might not matter much in this particular case, however.
 
JoBBo said:
I hope you realize that Scotland is already part of the European Union. They already "got it".
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If they vote for independence they have to apply, the UK has the EU membership not Scotland
 
Robert said:
That would be a bit of a land grab / giveaway:
hadrians-wall-path-map.gif
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Looks like the UK needs to put Putin on retainer to 'negotiate a new border"
 
metalman said:
If they vote for independence they have to apply, the UK has the EU membership not Scotland
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If Scotland don't vote for independence there is a good chance the UK will leave anyway.
 
Robert said:
If Scotland don't vote for independence there is a good chance the UK will leave anyway.
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Honestly, I think the talk about the UK leaving the EU is just populist posturing.

London´s financial industry strongly opposes the exit, which most likely means it will never happen.
 
JoBBo said:
Honestly, I think the talk about the UK leaving the EU is just populist posturing.
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It's a little more than that, I'm afraid.
The Conservative party have promised a referendum if re-elected. That much is settled.
There is a good chance they will win which means the referendum result will decide it.

Now, I don't think the majority of the UK electorate currently want to leave the EU but opinions change and there are definite signs of a trend in that direction. UKIP, who want UK out of the EU, have been steadily increasing their share of the vote too.
Given what has been happening in Scotland over the last wee while, I'd say it is a serious possibility.
Just last month the YouGov opinion poll had Yes 22% behind No. There appears to have been a 24% swing in four weeks. If a similar shift happened to opinion across the UK, leaving the EU would become a distinct possibility.
IndyRefSept.png
 
Robert said:
It's a little more than that, I'm afraid.
The Conservative party have promised a referendum if re-elected. That much is settled.
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I was aware of that.

Now, I don't think the majority of the UK electorate currently want to leave the EU but opinions change and there are definite signs of a trend in that direction. UKIP, who want UK out of the EU, have been steadily increasing their share of the vote too.
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Actually, I do think that a majority of the UK electorate would currently want to leave but I also think that the UK´s financial industry will end up financing a massive campaign to convince people to eventually vote against it.

The UK government has successfully blocked major banking reforms (or "harmful bureaucracies", depending on who you ask) in the entire European Union which they will no longer be able to do if they leave the EU. Without the UK government as their ally, the UK banking industry will have a much more difficult time influencing policy makers in the European Union. Plus, if the UK leaves the EU, it is inevitable that London´s financial industry will lose a substantial amount of business to the financial centres in Paris and Frankfurt.

There is a lot of money at stake.
 
metalman said:
If they vote for independence they have to apply, the UK has the EU membership not Scotland
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You still have not explained why this would be a tragedy compared to the current situation. It should give you pause that the people proposing to leave the UK explicitly state that they plan for Scotland to remain a part of the EU.
 
Cyberus said:
I have to say I did find the article convincing. He sums up it up amusingly thus: "You may think that Scotland can become another Canada, but it's all too likely that it would end up becoming Spain without the sunshine."
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Here's part of a retort:
Here Krugman has half a point. A central bank is just a device that lets a government print its own cash income in an emergency. When Spain got into (unnecessary) trouble it had no such printing press – the Germans ban the Eurozone’s central bank in Frankfurt from printing euros on demand for member states. So Spain had to introduce austerity, to pay through the nose for German loans. Which may, of course, be what Berlin wanted.

Krugman says an independent Scotland in a currency union with England would be like Spain. The Scottish Government would not be able to print money to cover itself (or bail out private banks) in an emergency. Why take the risk?

But hang on again. The correct approach is to ensure we don’t over-borrow in the first place. The correct approach is to control our banks so they don’t implode and need rescuing. The correct approach is not to print money to refund financiers and hedge funds who engaged in reckless financial gambles - that only encourages them to do it again.
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http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/9725-paul-krugman-what-the-heck
 
JoBBo said:
You still have not explained why this would be a tragedy compared to the current situation. It should give you pause that the people proposing to leave the UK explicitly state that they plan for Scotland to remain a part of the EU.
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I never said it would be a tragedy?
More like shooting themselves in the foot, because they're still butt hurt over Thatcher.

There will be unintended consequences to the division though, if the referendum passes, the first consequence will be that all the major financial firms headquartered in Scotland will leave

If Scotland wants to remain part of the EU after the division, they will have to apply, and use the euro as the currency, but then Scotland will be held to EU ( German ) monetary policy instead of London's
 
metalman said:
There will be unintended consequences to the division though, if the referendum passes, the first consequence will be that all the major financial firms headquartered in Scotland will leave
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There's a whole lot of propaganda and nonsense floating about regarding this and much of it is reminiscent of the same threats (empty, as it turned out) that were made before the devolution referendum in 1997. Two examples of sensationalised "mass job loss" nonsense from yesterday:

RBS had to issue a clarification explaining that, whilst they may move their registered office, their main operation would remain in Edinburgh and no jobs would move.

Lloyds-TSB said they will move their registered office (effectively a plaque on a wall) but their headquarters and main operations (and jobs) are already in London.

As for Standard Life, in 1997 they made an announcement that "operations will be moved to England" if the country voted for devolution.
The country *did* vote for devolution and Standard Life stayed *exactly where they are*.

There has also been much made of "great Scottish financial institutions Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland and Clydesdale Bank leaving their homeland".
None of those banks have been Scottish owned for many years. In other words, what people are threatening will happen in the event of independence already has, several years ago.

Furthermore, the credibility of those running these organisation is at an all time low for a number of other reasons which I'm sure you don't need reminding of.

If Scotland wants to remain part of the EU after the division, they will have to apply, and use the euro as the currency,
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That remains to be seen and personally I doubt it because it as there's no chance of Scotland using the Euro in the short term and it wouldn't be in anyone's interest to reject membership on that basis.

but then Scotland will be held to EU ( German ) monetary policy instead of London's
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That part is true - IF Scotland joins the Euro which, again, is highly unlikely.

All of this is pie in the sky anyway. The result will almost certainly be a No vote.
 
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To be fair, turnout for elections here are usually poor as well.

This vote is different.
 
Robert said:
Indeed. The Spanish government are terrified of Scottish independence.
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Not only for the Catalonians, but for the Basques as well.
I kind of hope the Scottish will get their freedom. Next us northerners? The Netherlands only have us nowadays for our gas.
 
The independence movement in Scania's defenitely hoping on a Yes - they've been trying to turn the local opinion for quite some time. :)

@Speel is Groeningen trying to break free too?
 
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