Someone explain sanctions to me?

Yep, Russia will get lots of produce from South of the Equator. Hey wait, isn't it winter there right now? Great plan.

The Greek media is reporting that Russia is gonna have a long list of exclusions to the blanketing sanctions they imposed. So it seems they'll continue to get European fruits and vegetables, they'll just pretend that they're not.
 
Yep, Russia will get lots of produce from South of the Equator.
I said "former satellites" - and they don't tend to be below the equator. In fact, if you are familiar with the planet earth you might have noticed that there isn't really very much land south of the equator.
The Greek media is reporting that Russia is gonna have a long list of exclusions to the blanketing sanctions they imposed. So it seems they'll continue to get European fruits and vegetables, they'll just pretend that they're not.
I'm sure they will, based on what kind of sanctions potential suppliers decide to impose. That's what the game is all about. One really has to wonder what is so great that the US has offered to get the sanctions that have been acceded to so far.
 
And the winner is ... China.

Makes sense. China needs the oil, Russia needs the veggies. Direct trade between the two - no dollars needed.
 
One problem I heard about is that Europe sells Russia 12x more food than the USA. Many European countries are willing to boycott but they're asking the hard question of where their sales go? (Hint - hey USA buy our stuff!)

In related news the soybean and corn crop in the USA is one of the largest ever. It's the equivalent of 2 bushels per person worldwide. (Wow!) Of course, there's never a straight line with economics but it's likely that food may edge down in the USA as grains are cheaper. Though if the powers that be look to import food from Europe the farm economy may be hit even harder.
 
There's a good chance none of this will matter. Unless Putin decides a direct intervention, and if he does, he'll do it within a week or two, this will all be over soon. The Ukrainian military has been making good progress retaking towns. The "seperatists" forces are mostly Russian nationals and pro-Russian extremists who haven't received the support by the locals they'd need to conduct a protracted campaign against an organized military. Only a Russian invasion can save them now and that's really up to Putin right now. If he decides to do nothing, and it would be wise of him to do so, then the Ukrainian army will likely mop things up by the end of summer. It might however end even sooner if Putin makes a deal with Ukraine and the EU. The word is they'd trade rights to Crimea for a few billion in lost revenues for the land Russia would have rented. Not a bad deal. And that would lift sanctions too. The recent troop movements on the boarder are probably linked to that deal. Their presense might just give Putin more to bargain with. And if the deal falls apart, he still has the option to invade. The next few weeks will be interesting.
 
Ukraine has lots of it, just lacks the technology to extract it.
You know where the gas is, right? And you know it means fracking. It's expensive, messy and doesn't last. Fracking companies are scrambling to open up new wells all the time just to maintain production. I guess a whole bunch of new drill sites (in a place where folks don't want them but might get bombed for saying so) would be a boon.
The US can help and it should. Putin probably fears this the most as he prefers Ukraine remain poor and hopeless.
As does the IMF. Have you noticed how much more brutal the IMF deal is than the Russian deal was? Austerity, privatization - do you think Ukraine will make any money from their gas? I'm sure our gas companies will do great but I don't expect much to get back to the people. The Kiev regime will give it away like Harper gives away the oil sands.

From the second article:
Strong anti-fracking grassroots movement in Europe proves that people on the continent also understand the hidden dangers of shale gas development. Many countries in continental Europe have shelved unrealistic shale projects despite the fact that European energy prices are double those in the US. Germany set strong barriers against fracking. France's president Hollande blocked shale initiatives. The Paris-based International Energy Agency has strong doubts about shale gas in Europe pointing to the lack of drilling equipment, higher population density and environmental concerns. The only apologist of fracking in the European Union is Great Britain. London is strongly influenced by US companies trying to sell drilling equipment on the island.
(emphasis mine)
 
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There are certain conditions that makes fracking more viable. Canada for example has lots of unpopulated areas and lots of water, where as much of Europe doesn't. Ukraine however, is more like Canada and fracking is more viable there. Btw, Russia has been a major advocate against fracking and not because they care about the environment as they're fracking too.
 

By Keith C Smith, certainly a man with deep experience in the area. Don't forget UAE trying to make fracking look bad too.

I guess because Putin's been telling people fracking is bad that means it must be good? We should listen more to those funded by BP and their ilk.

Anyway, blaming Putin for all the greenies has become fashionable of late (bare in mind it is a conspiracy theory, just so long as you are comfortable with that). Would Russia have reasons to want other people not develop fracking? Yup. Would the people who lived in frackable areas have their own reasons to be concerned? Yup. Now, perhaps it is OK in unpopulated areas and luckily Donbass has suddenly become a lot less populated recently. Staggering stroke of luck really.
 
BY the way - old news now but interesting in retrospect. Canada, Russia and Israel to be buds coz ... gas. By the way, that Israeli gas? It's Gazan but since Gaza can't actually exercise control over the water there ... Israel gets to control it.
 
Calling anti-frackers propagandists for Russia may also just be propaganda from frackers. Or both things could be true. After all, the western frackers are hardly likely to be causal bystanders in a propaganda war.
 
I think you missed my two main points. 1) Russia's policies are mostly driven by their interests in selling gas, and 2) they use hydrolic fracturing just like everyone else.

Point 1 may explain why Russia is so concerned about the future of Ukraine. If Ukraine starts using the same techniques that Russia uses to extract LNG, then they could jeopordize their own sales. But it's not just about the money, it's about control and power as Russia has used LNG as a political chip in the past and probably would like to continue doing so. Ukraine can threaten that and that can certainly explain what Russia is up to. I find it funny that you're often quick to point out America's interests in Middle Eastern oil production as a means to explain US actions and yet here you are completely ignoring the issue with Russia. I tend to agree that the US does protect it's oil interests in ways that are ofte down right brutal, but why should we give Russia a pass?

As for point two, you don't appear to be troubled by Russia's use of fracking but somehow seem to find it rather offensive that Ukraine might consider it. Whyzzat?
 
I think you missed my two main points. 1) Russia's policies are mostly driven by their interests in selling gas, and 2) they use hydrolic fracturing just like everyone else.
I think you don't read what I post.

Point 1 may explain why Russia is so concerned about the future of Ukraine.
Did I mention the frackable fields are in mostly in the east where the fighting is? I think I did. But also coal. Two big resources both important to Europe. But could the economic importance of Ukraine be also a reason why the US is so interested in it? And could the geographic and strategic importance of it also be another reason that both parties are interested in it? And would those reasons justify both sides political interference up to conducting a coup and handing the place over to Nazis? Possibly? Ultimately I stand by what I've said all along - the offer that Ukraine was getting from Russia is better than the one they got from the US - so the US forced the issue and backed a coup.

I find it funny that you're often quick to point out America's interests in Middle Eastern oil production as a means to explain US actions and yet here you are completely ignoring the issue with Russia. I tend to agree that the US does protect it's oil interests in ways that are ofte down right brutal, but why should we give Russia a pass?
Because it has tended to be less brutal about it. It hasn't been bombing and invading the oil powers like the US has - perhaps because they simply can't since the US military capabilities outstrip those of the rest of the world, but perhaps also because they don't want to. They could have gone down the road of sinking their resources into building a bigger military but they haven't. The Russian military has shrunk over the last couple of decades thought they are rethinking that policy now. Russia (and China) have been running around the world trying to create deals. The US just marches in if it doesn't like what's going on. That is a significant difference.

At some point around about now you might be wanting to say something like "but Georgia" and I've explained my opinion on that before. And then, Chechnya, which, of course, was brutal - on BOTH sides - but was a war of attempted secession like the US Civil War or that which is going on in Ukraine right now - the US backs the war on the people of East Ukraine but didn't really have much of an opinion on in Chechnya.

As for point two, you don't appear to be troubled by Russia's use of fracking but somehow seem to find it rather offensive that Ukraine might consider it. Whyzzat?
I alluded to that but perhaps it was less than obvious - I said:
Yup. Now, perhaps it is OK in unpopulated areas and luckily Donbass has suddenly become a lot less populated recently. Staggering stroke of luck really.
and you alluded to population as a factor as well, and the article you linked said that the Russia fracking was in Western Siberia. I simply assumed thereafter that we were on the same page as to why fracking was OK for Siberia but not for the Donbass basin. I see that we are not so I will explain my opinion.

Siberia has a population density of about 3 per km^2. Donbass density is (was) more like 300 per km^2. Siberia is mostly northern, uninhabited and agriculturally unproductive. Donbass has a continental climate with dense industrial cities between productive farmlands. In Siberia you can frack land nobody wants. In Donbas you either frack the cities or the farms. Either way you frack for the benefit of the oligarchs who will run it (local or foreign or a mix of both) and you risk your food supply which is important to the population. Why would the people of Donbass want to risk their farmland just so the US could be the guys calling the energy shots in Europe instead of Russia? And why would Europe be better off beholden to the US than being beholden to Russia? The current mess hurts both Russia and Europe. A war would be even worse for both of them. The only party that stands to benefit (even from a war) is the US. Even China would lose. If there was a war in Europe, the US would win - even if it didn't intervene in any way because two of its rivals would destroy each other and a third would be left without friends.
 
Did I mention the frackable fields are in mostly in the east where the fighting is? I think I did. But also coal. Two big resources both important to Europe. But could the economic importance of Ukraine be also a reason why the US is so interested in it? And could the geographic and strategic importance of it also be another reason that both parties are interested in it?
Ukraine's natural resources may be important to many, but most of all to Ukraine and they have the most incentive to do what they wish to do with it. With absolute certainty Russia's best interests in Ukraine are not Ukraine's best interests. With the EU however, Ukraine has a lot more say.
And would those reasons justify both sides political interference up to conducting a coup and handing the place over to Nazis? Possibly? Ultimately I stand by what I've said all along - the offer that Ukraine was getting from Russia is better than the one they got from the US - so the US forced the issue and backed a coup.
Possibly? No, most certainly you have shit for brains. Russia's deal was a death sentence to Ukraine as a nation (and btw, the deal they accepted was from the EU not the US, but you said US because you like to pretend you're smart and know stuff). Ukrainians are the ones who rejected that deal and for good reason. I've explained to you this already, but you don't care because your only goal is to do what you can to help Putin. Perhaps it was this thread or perhaps another, but you made it clear that you miss the days of the multi-polar world, which is all one needs to know about you to realize the level of stupidity we're dealing with. The truth is you hate the US and you'd like another world power to take it on and cut it down to size and you couldn't care less what level of destruction or human suffering is required to do that. That's why I consider you to be a piece of garbage. You're not a humanitarian, you just pretend to be one whenever the US or Israel are involved in a war. But when Russia or one of it's proxies kills people willy-nilly you either go quiet as with Chechnya or do your best to run interference like with Georgia, Syria and now Ukraine.
And as for your comment about the Nazis, well, it just helps burry your credibility that much more. Aside from the fact the term Nazi is an extremely loaded one with the purpose of exploiting a deep rooted emotional response (typical of propagandists) it is however not all that accurate. The real funny thing is I remember I once expressed a hostile view of ultra-nationalists and it was you who decided to defend them, but that was in the case of Greece and austerity. In that case the Greek ultra-nationalists were anti-EU and anti-austerity so I guess you decided that they needed some defending. In this case, this particular brand of ultra nationalists are anti-Russia so we must refer to them only as Nazis. Not even neo-nazis will do, "Nazis" is the favoured term by the Kremlin as we must invoke the image of Hilter when talking about Kiev. The fact is both Russia and Ukraine have their fair share of ultra nationalists but neither country is run by them. The claim that Kiev is run by Nazis is just as accurate as a claim that Russia is run by Nazis. The fact is that in the past presidential elections the right wing ultra nationalists got less than 2% of the vote making them less popular that what is typical in the rest of Europe. So why do you continue to refer to the government in Kiev as Nazis? Oh yeah, because you're a lying piece of garbage.
 
Ukraine's natural resources may be important to many,
Indeed, and I'll get to that below.
Russia's deal was a death sentence to Ukraine as a nation (and btw, the deal they accepted was from the EU not the US, but you said US because you like to pretend you're smart and know stuff).
The "deal" they took is with the IMF which is an instrument of US financial power. Russia was offering them a much better deal on their debts but the IMF has demanded extreme austerity as part of its loan package (which the Russian loan package did not demand) and will doubtless require natural resource concessions also as IMF loans often do. Being a basket case Ukraine didn't have good options, but the Russian bailout was definitely better than the terms the new government took on.

And as for your comment about the Nazis, well, it just helps burry your credibility that much more. [...] The claim that Kiev is run by Nazis is just as accurate as a claim that Russia is run by Nazis. The fact is that in the past presidential elections the right wing ultra nationalists got less than 2% of the vote making them less popular that what is typical in the rest of Europe.

Svoboda did much better than that. Yes, the party that started off as the "Social-National Party of Ukraine" gained 37 seats in the 2012 elections. After lending muscle to the Euromaiden riots the right wingers were rewared, like Andriy Parubiy, who lead the anti-government protests apparently and was a co-founder of The Social-Nationalist Party and was appointed Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (until his recent resignation). Ihor Miroshnychenko, who famously showed up in a video trying to smack a resignation out of the head of National Television in Ukraine got to be Deputy head of the Parliament's Committee on Freedom of Speech.
In December 2012, the European Parliament expressed concern regarding Svoboda's growing support, recalling "that racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic views go against the EU's fundamental values and principles," and appealed "to pro-democratic parties in the Verkhovna Rada not to associate with, endorse or form coalitions with" Svoboda.
Thirty members of the Israeli Knesset condemned the party in a signed letter addressed to the President of the European Parliament. In the letter the Israeli politicians accused Svoboda of "openly glorifying Nazi murder" and "Nazi war criminals". In May 2013 the World Jewish Congress labelled the party as "neo-Nazi" and called for European governments to ban them.

But since their great use in the toppling of the pro-Russian government the US has declared them much nicer now, thank you very much.

So why do you continue to refer to the government in Kiev as Nazis? Oh yeah, because you're a lying piece of garbage.
They don't form the whole government, but nor did Hitler's Nazi party, when he first got in. It was very much a minority party but they let Hitler get his hands on a little too much power and then ... well, we know what happened. Similarly the, OK, let's not call them neo-Nazis because they have all grown out of that by now, I'm sure, right? so let's just call them the far right or nationalists ... they managed to get themselves into some power positions after the Maidan. Now there's been some cleanup after the fact like the liquidation of Muzychko and there have been some "resignations" as well.
We'll have to see what the 2015 elections bring. Will the pain from austerity increase the popularity of the radical right? Will the losses of forced conscripts in the war against the east sour the people on the nationalists?

(By the way, the UN acknowledges that the death toll in the east has doubled in the last two weeks to 2000)
 
Ukraine's natural resources may be important to many, but most of all to Ukraine and they have the most incentive to do what they wish to do with it. With absolute certainty Russia's best interests in Ukraine are not Ukraine's best interests.

-snip-

Agree with this part but the rest of it is the most ironic post I've read on here for a long time.

By anyone.
 
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