Someone explain sanctions to me?

Wayne

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OK. Putin is in the middle of a power play. One that our clueless leader doesn't have any ideas how to stop, so once again, we hear about "sanctions" being imposed on Russia. Think about it this way.. "Sanctions" are designed -- as I understand it -- to withhold access to things from an errant entity. Sort of like an economic blockade designed to punish the guilty.

But... Here's where my problem comes in...

  1. America is no longer a world leader in ANYTHING, let alone a World power. Thanks to Barry's "Change", we're very much on the brink of becoming yet another third-world country.
  2. America doesn't actually produce anything any more, so there's nothing we can withhold from Russia that makes any difference. Certainly nothing they don't already produce or can get anywhere else in the world.
  3. Russia has more power, influence, and access to everything in the world than we do.

So, I just have to ask... Who gives a {bleep} about sanctions? What EXACTLY are "sanctions" going to do any more? Why don't the powers that be in DC hear Putin laughing at their reaction?
As Sanctions Pile Up, Russians’ Alarm Grows Over Putin's Tactics
By NEIL MacFARQUHARJULY 29, 2014

PUTINjp-master675.jpg


MOSCOW — Russia, facing the toughest round of Western sanctions imposed since the Ukraine crisis erupted, has adopted a nonchalant public stance, with President Vladimir V. Putin emphasizing the importance of self-reliance and a new poll released Tuesday indicating a “What, me worry?” attitude among the bulk of the population.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/30/w...-russians-alarm-grows-over-putin-tactics.html

Wayne
 

Robert

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  1. America is no longer a world leader in ANYTHING, let alone a World power. Thanks to Barry's "Change", we're very much on the brink of becoming yet another third-world country.

It's a little difficult to take either part of that statement seriously.
First of all, whilst your country's position as leader has disappeared in a number of areas, to lay blame solely at the feet of "Barry" is hysterical nonsense.
Secondly, not only is your country still very much a world power, it is still the leading world power.

As for sanctions, well, is "Puty" actually doing something that you would like to see "Barry" respond to and, if so, what form would you like that response to take?
 

Wayne

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What I would like is an actual answer to the question, not a debate over semantics.. :)
 

Glaucus

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Then we can't answer your question because you're forcing us to accept your false premise.
 

Wayne

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Wow. I begin lose the wonder at how this site seems to run off new users...
 

Glaucus

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Well, why don't you just come and tell us what Obama should have done?
 

Wayne

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I'm taking it that everyone is far more interested in arguing bullshit semantics than trying to explain to me why the {bleep} out failed leader thinks "sanctions"are supposed to actually accomplish...
 

faethor

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Sanctions work if it happens with an economic trade partner or can convince others to join in the sanction. In the case of Russia,the US sanction is unlikely to have any impact. There are no large economic ties between us. Nor is it likely to convince other nations to join in.

That being said it is usually a first step,prior to more drastic actions. Someone could go through the annuals of history, I doubt sanctions work more than 20% of the time.
 

Robert

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I'm taking it that everyone is far more interested in arguing bullshit semantics than trying to explain to me why the {bleep} out failed leader thinks "sanctions"are supposed to actually accomplish...

Well, perhaps you should tell us what you think he should do and why.
Your initial post was a bit hyperbolic and came across as you just wanting to have a moan about what Obama is doing, without offering any better ideas.

And for the record, I agree with you to a point; sanctions will achieve little if anything.
 

Glaucus

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I can't say I agree with Faethor's overall assessment. The sanctions in this case aren't a bad option and mostly because Russia is particularly vulnerable to them. Putin has focused the nation's economy on the oil and gas industries. He banked on the fact that Europe depends on those exports and would never dare sanction them. The entire sector hasn't been hit but parts have and we're now seeing some more serious sanctions coming into play that are broader in scope. The Russian economy is likely to suffer by the sanctions and will likely be made worse with Putin's strategy of willful isolation. Europe is also likely to suffer but are likely to suffer far less long term. Putin is enjoying popularity but the Russian people haven't really experienced the effects just yet. They will though and they're likely to question why. More importantly, the sanctions target the wealthy people surrounding Putin, and they're more likely to do something. Russians have become accustomed to western goods despite the fact that they've been taught to mistrust the west in general. Add to that that Moscow's strategy in Eastern Ukraine appears to be failing and many believe such a failure can tarnish Putin's self created image of being a master tactician (which really I don't think that he is so much because most of his gains come from ignoring or changing the rules as he goes, which should allow anyone to win).

Personally I would have liked the sanctions to be a little more damaging, but it's not really Obama's fault. Many Europeans are a bit soft on Putin right now and they need to be onboard for this to work. I still can't believe France hasn't blocked the sale of two Mistral class war ships, that should have been the first thing to do. Still, the strategy appeared to be one of slowly ramping up to give Russia time and incentive to change course while giving Putin chances to save face. So far that hasn't worked at all, but it may not matter now as the Ukrainian army appears to be making substantial gains on the ground.

And that's really all that can be done. NATO attacking or even threatening Russia is not an option and no European would allow that. Arming the Ukrainians has also been shunned upon because despite this war they are still considered too close to Russia and some say completely infiltrated by Russian intelligence. Personally I think what we'll ultimately see is an eventual back down or defeat of Putin's strategy in Eastern Ukraine however he'll have at least one strategic victory: Ukraine will not get into NATO for a very long time if ever. That alone might be enough for Putin to save his popularity. I have a feeling Poroshenko might even agree to abstain from NATO membership in a negotiated settlement (which apparently is in the works) but it's my belief that NATO is the only thing that can guarantee Ukraine it's own security. So although I suspect Poroshenko might accept that, I wouldn't in his place.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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OK. Putin is in the middle of a power play.
He's caught in one, for sure, but power plays happen all the time.
One that our clueless leader doesn't have any ideas how to stop,
One that the clueless population doesn't realize has been played since the end of the war to leverage the position it attained then into world domination. That's kind of dramatic sounding but it is the basic thrust of the PNAC document and US policy in general. America is rolling back Russia, hopes to roll back China too. Russia and China are just trying to maintain what they have at the moment, which is annoying the piss out of the US leadership.

Sort of like an economic blockade designed to punish the guilty.
Where "guilty" is to be interpreted as independent - i.e. not controlled by us.
1) America is no longer a world leader in ANYTHING, let alone a World power. Thanks to Barry's "Change", we're very much on the brink of becoming yet another third-world country.
America still produces quite a lot though it is true that the actual doing has been outsourced, the profits stoill roll back to the mother institutions in the US, so maybe Americans aren't getting the jobs to do the work, the owners are still making out like bandits.
However, there are two areas at least that the US is utterly dominant in and they are military and financial.

a) The US has the most powerful (and expensive) military on the planet and can strike anywhere with very little lead time these days thanks to having over a 1000 land bases scattered through other people's countries. Compare this to the 36 bases that the British Empire had at it's peak and you'll have an idea of how unprecedented this global military reach is.

b) The US financial system owns the world in at least two fundamental ways. First it has the worlds reserve currency. this is a deal that it made as the winner of WWII. The Breton Woods system set up an international settlement system that basically ran on US dollars which meant that the US could make money simply by printing it as other people would then need to purchase those dollars as a reserve (at the cost of real goods and raw materials) so they could participate in international trade cleared through US banking institutions.
The US ended up printing so much money for other people to buy and use that the dollar fell below the value of the gold that was backing it and so, in 1973 thereabouts, the US suspended convertibility to gold and the US dollar became fully fiat. Now unbacked the dollar went into a decline but that was halted by an agreement with the Saudis to only sell oil in USD and in exchange they would re-invest those USD in US institutions and purchase US weapons. The oil exchanges were also US controlled and so countries once again had to acquire USD to buy oil.
What this has meant for decades is that the US can choke a country simply by not processing its payments. If you can't trade for dollars then you can't trade for oil either and you die.
Even though the US fell out of the top oil producing nations slot it still controlled world oil and could make money from it without having to supply it - because the US was the sole supplier of the things you needed to buy oil - dollars.

2) America doesn't actually produce anything any more, so there's nothing we can withhold from Russia that makes any difference. Certainly nothing they don't already produce or can get anywhere else in the world.
So, the US banking system (including the IMF which was also created by Bretton Woods and is a US organ of financial power) controls the flow of goods and oil around the world by controlling the flow of dollars. Russia is a producer of oil (and gas) but not a producer of dollars. they also aren't fully in control of the transaction clearing in Rubles that happens within their own borders if the transactions are done through credit cards, for instance. That means that US financial power can interfere with the internal economy of Russia and with the international economy.
There is a big caveat though. A lot of the companies that would be called on to put the screws to Russia by messing with these powerful levers would end up cutting off a big chunk of their own income. In the state most of the financial institutions are in that would leave them unacceptably exposed to the truly enormous debts most of them are backed by. Helping the government to aggressively sanction Russia would be suicidal.
3) Russia has more power, influence, and access to everything in the world than we do.
Russia has been reaching out and making deals. It has had to. But that network is still very young and doing trades for Rubles an Yuan and Rials is still only a small part of the world economy and not as efficient as doing everything in one currency. It is, however, much safer for everyone.
So, I just have to ask... Who gives a {bleep} about sanctions? What EXACTLY are "sanctions" going to do any more? Why don't the powers that be in DC hear Putin laughing at their reaction?

Sanctions against Russia as a whole would be far to expensive, both to the US and to Europe which relies on Russian energy so also must tread a careful path. So what the powers that be are trying to do is to hurt selected friends of Putin personally. Russia, like the US and every other country, is run by an elite that get wealthy from their positions and use their positions to increase their wealth. Putin's alliance of oligarchs is what lets him rule. If he didn't rule then a rival alliance could take his place. The hope is that the rival oligarchs would see their future fortunes under US rule (like they did when the US ruled Russia through Yeltsin).
The US ruling oligarchic alliance wants to hurt Putin's friends by cutting off their banking privileges and cutting them off from their overseas assets - that is, the US wants to steal their stuff and cancel their credit cards and to do it in such a way that they don't hurt their own oligarchs. Putin needs to offer alternatives to his oligarchs so that they can continue doing business and so he and the Chinese (who would benefit also from having more freedom) and several other countries are moving forward on a plan to build a parallel world monetary system.

This is an existential threat to the US and if the sanctions can't fracture Russia before they fracture the western alliance then the US will have to resort to its other top strength - military.

If the information war goes well then soon the population of the US will hate Putin sufficiently that it will become politically possible to launch military action against Russia itself even to the extent of pre-emptive nuclear war. Or US collapse - but the US is likely to collapse soon anyway even if it did win a nuclear war.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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I'm taking it that everyone is far more interested in arguing bullshit semantics than trying to explain to me why the {bleep} out failed leader thinks "sanctions"are supposed to actually accomplish...
Now that would be a question you should ask of your leader, whoever that may be. It's not Barry though. He's just the president.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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What I would like is an actual answer to the question, not a debate over semantics.. :)
I have a question for you Wayne. Why do you think something needs to be done about Putin?
 

FluffyMcDeath

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Many Europeans are a bit soft on Putin right now and they need to be onboard for this to work. I still can't believe France hasn't blocked the sale of two Mistral class war ships, that should have been the first thing to do.

Sometimes when it seems like everyone else in the world is dragging their feet to do what you want them to do maybe it's you that is out of step with reality. Could it be that the rest of the world is more comfortable with a multipolar world than a unipolar world? Why should the US be able to badger everyone into ganging up on its rivals? When everyone else thinks your wrong it might not be that they are all crazy, it might be that you are wrong.
Personally I think what we'll ultimately see is an eventual back down or defeat of Putin's strategy in Eastern Ukraine however he'll have at least one strategic victory:
All Putin has to do is what he has been doing - basically nothing. As the austerity bites into Ukraine you are likely to see spreading unrest and then the options become - more repression by Kiev as we continue to pretend it's not happening, or a complete break with the IMF/Euro plan which would be a disaster for our strategy and likely to lead to protracted violent destabilization efforts by the west to re-establish a friendly government to shore up the "legitimacy" of the debts and foreign ownership.
If Ukraine ends up with another Russia friendly government and renegs on the debts to us it just agreed to under the Maidan government we'd probably go in I'm pretty sure they'd end up under some pretty stiff sanctions pretty quick.
 

Glaucus

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Wow fluffy, that's the most garbage you've written in one day for a while. Pretty good.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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Wow fluffy, that's the most garbage you've written in one day for a while. Pretty good.
Thank you. I know I should have done it with links but really, who even reads those anyway.
 
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