Prediction: Trump will get a majority of black voters

redrumloa

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Posting this prediction so we can go back and check after the election is over. There have always been black conservatives in recent times, but they have been afraid to voice their opinions for fear of retribution. I predicted Obama would be the most divisive president in US history and I was right. None of you can dispute this.

Black conservatives are coming out of the shadows and their numbers are growing. For many examples see a lot of my posts in the gloating thread. They are coming out of the woodwork and their numbers are exploding.



(Not claiming to like Louis Farrakhan, but look who he praises)

 
Polls are polls, so take this poll with a grain of salt. That said, it suggests as of Dec 2015 Trump would get 40% of Black votes. I'm sure there are other polls to suggest lower. Polls are a weapon, the reality will happen come election time. I predict a majority of black voters vote for Trump.
 
Oooh.... Interesting thread. Right now, I'd take a bet that "No, he won't." I'll go on record with that one, too.

I think right now there are a lot of people, including African Americans who are really not very happy with Hillary. A lot of buyer's remorse, there. But when it actually comes time to pull that lever? I think it'll be a different story.
 
There have always been black conservatives in recent times, but they have been afraid to voice their opinions for fear of retribution.

Man shot for simply being black and supporting Donald Trump.

 
Oooh.... Interesting thread. Right now, I'd take a bet that "No, he won't." I'll go on record with that one, too.

I think right now there are a lot of people, including African Americans who are really not very happy with Hillary. A lot of buyer's remorse, there. But when it actually comes time to pull that lever? I think it'll be a different story.

That's what's fun about these debates, being able to go back and revisit once the outcome happens. There is a HELL OF A LOT of buyer's remorse with Obama himself. He made all sorts of grand claims and did almost nothing but lip service. Violence and poverty in inner cities have exploded under Obama. Obama also personally helped craft the false BLM narrative intended to simply divide people. Most black Americans don't want a race war. They just want an equal opportunity without roadblocks.
 
There are about 1M Haitian-Americans who are part of the "Black Community". You can bet your ass that almost zero percent will vote for Hillary and they will make their voices heard.

(In creole)

(Previously posted)
 
That's what's fun about these debates, being able to go back and revisit once the outcome happens.

Yep. Definitely. There's no going back and revising without an edit mark showing up. :D

There is a HELL OF A LOT of buyer's remorse with Obama himself. He made all sorts of grand claims and did almost nothing but lip service.

There is some disappointment with Obama, but I don't think I'd go as far as to say remorse. At least not around Detroit. And, that starts bringing up Urban vs Suburban vs Rural black. Those are three totally different groups in a lot of ways.

Violence and poverty in inner cities have exploded under Obama.

Naw... The violence has always been there in the inner city. It was before my time, but looking back to the race riots of the 60's in Detroit... It was open violence back then, too. The Urban tension has always been present in the US. That isn't just Obama. It's decades upon decades of mistrust on both sides. It's the mini GoPro cams and cell phone live streams that bring that hard proof front-and-center... Make it unmistakable and undeniable. That's your spike in protest and violence. You'd have BLM regardless of who was president. And you will until policing methods change. That's the Urban black story as it stands.

Obama also personally helped craft the false BLM narrative intended to simply divide people.

I don't buy into the personal crafting. He also hasn't attempted to diffuse it, though. Of course, any attempt to diffuse the situation could, indeed really blow it up. He's on a tightrope over a big fire.

Most black Americans don't want a race war.

They don't want a race war... But they don't wanna be pulled over and shot for no good reason, either. I mean, watch those videos. It ain't good. I'm not saying they were shot because they were black. I'm not saying the police are outwardly racist. For the most part, they're not. They're good folks who are paid poorly and trained worse to do a shitty job. They just hope to get through their day, and back to their own families at the end of it. And that is where the "Black Lives Matter" tag hurts. It's not really about the color. It's about the fear. It's about the police being scared of the people they patrol. It's about the people being afraid of the police and not helping. It's a vicious circle. That's the heart of the movement. It's based on fact, man. It ain't right. It's accidents. It's misunderstandings. But it's dead people, all the same. Dead people. The fear grows.

They just want an equal opportunity without roadblocks.

Equal opportunity means different things to different people. For the Urban black kid who is wearing colors because he'll get his ass kicked every day at school if he doesn't... It means he hopes to survive his next encounter with the police. That fear is real.

For the suburban black kid... His life isn't that much different from the suburban white or Asian. Equal opportunity means he doesn't want to be recognized for his skin.

For the rural black kid... He's hoping there isn't a burning cross on his lawn.

That's three really wildly different experiences, there. And that's part of why race relations are so hard, too.
 
Man, I typed out that entire previous post, and didn't bring it back around to the topic in this thread.

With all those different situations and experiences... As mostly an outsider, I'd say a lot of black people are kind of having a identity crisis about what it really means to be black. Sure, there's the skin... But there's something more, right? There's the culture and clothes and the "us alone versus everybody" mentality... And, when push comes to shove... I'm betting one of those things is voting Democrat. You can mark my words on it.
 
Man, I typed out that entire previous post, and didn't bring it back around to the topic in this thread.

With all those different situations and experiences... As mostly an outsider, I'd say a lot of black people are kind of having a identity crisis about what it really means to be black. Sure, there's the skin... But there's something more, right? There's the culture and clothes and the "us alone versus everybody" mentality... And, when push comes to shove... I'm betting one of those things is voting Democrat. You can mark my words on it.

:)

I'll reply to the followup and not the long post. To reply completely to that would get really long winded. If ever in FL we can share a beer and discuss the finer points. Just a few thoughts.

The GOP has been demonized for far too long. Too many blacks bought the narrative hook, line and sinker to the point Obama received 98% block of the vote his first time around. When a voting block is that far gone, you don't pander to them. After the DNC email dump you know just like I always did that the Democrats only pander. Just because the GOP didn't pander to this group didn't make them racists. The whole "Republicans are racists" is hinged on Barry Goldwater, who lost. Strangely these people making these arguments ignore LBJ's own words.

“I’ll have those n*ggers voting Democratic for the next 200 years.”
~ Lyndon B. Johnson to two governors on Air Force One


Most Republicans want the best for black people, they just don't see keeping them in poverty and dependent on government handouts as the solution. I think the proliferation of the interwebs as a really good thing. The world is getting smaller and frauds like the Democrat Party are being exposed.

On the longer post, if I get time maybe I will come back to you with statistics. But the bottom line is unemployment for blacks has skyrocketed under Obama, just as inner city murders has skyrocketed. Despair has skyrocketed under Obama. This is why so many black people are abandoning the Democrat plantation.
 
No way anywhere near 50%

I do think Trump will do better than any recent Republican Presidential candidate, but that would be around 15% max

2012 Romney 6%
2008 McCain 4%
2004 Bush 11%
2000 Bush 9%
1996 Dole 12%
1992 Bush 10%
1988 Bush 11%
1984 Reagan 9%
1980 Reagan 14%
1976 Ford 17%
 
No way anywhere near 50%

I do think Trump will do better than any recent Republican Presidential candidate, but that would be around 15% max

2012 Romney 6%
2008 McCain 4%
2004 Bush 11%
2000 Bush 9%
1996 Dole 12%
1992 Bush 10%
1988 Bush 11%
1984 Reagan 9%
1980 Reagan 14%
1976 Ford 17%

Game on. I say 51% minimum.
 
Black Guns Matter: The 2nd Amendment is color blind

“You know, our information base started to look as if – to us, it looked like this was deliberate – like there is a deliberate attempt to make sure that people in the hood don’t have firearms,” Toure said. “And then doing a little bit of research we start to see that all gun control laws come from right after the emancipation of newly freed African people. So that being the case, instead of complaining about we just came up with something that could address that ignorance and it’s Black Guns Matter.”


Contrary to the typical talking points on gun crime and violence in inner city areas, which hold increased regulation on legal firearms sales and possession and denying the right to carry as a solution, Toure feels that it is a political bait and switch.


“Gun control is a sham. It’s not about gun control. It’s about people control,” he said. “It’s about trying to convince people that somehow the government is going to be responsible for your safety. That’s the equivalent of saying, ‘Hey, we have fires. Take all of the fire extinguishers out of your home because if there’s a fire, the firemen will just come.’ No, we’re not doing it.”
 
Trump At Over 30 Percent With Black Vote In North Carolina

Trump is supported by 32 percent of likely black North Carolina voters, according to the poll. There is a margin of error of plus or minus 11.5 percent for Trump’s numbers with black voters. The most support a GOP presidential candidate has received from the black community in the last three decades is former President Gerald Ford’s 17 percent in 1976.
 
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