Plane down. 295 passengers dead. Neocons squeal with delight.

FluffyMcDeath

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In theory, 'terrorists' use precious (and expensive) ammunition (if they have that capability at all - their manpads don't go that high) to do something Putin would advise them not to do and Malaysia loses another airplane.

The response was pretty immediate (because who needs an investigation and cool heads when there's a war to stoke). I'll be interested to see if the plan for response is rolled out as quickly ... or whether people have really been caught by surprise.

Both sides have denied shooting down the plane. They could both be telling the truth. It would have been far simpler for anyone wanting to stir the pot to just put a bomb on the plane when it left Schiphol. It looks like I-Sec is contracted to handle the security there. That's an Israeli company founded by former Shin Bet members.

Malaysia has had bad luck with planes recently having already lost one earlier in the year. In an interesting wrinkle Malaysia is seeing some serious unrest lately and earlier in the year a government backed newspaper blamed the CIA for the last missing plane. Seems to be some bad blood between Malaysia and the US.

So fasten your seatbelts and hold onto your hats. Interesting times.
 

cecilia

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aren't there satellites focused on that area of the world 24/7 ??
 

FluffyMcDeath

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aren't there satellites focused on that area of the world 24/7 ??
Yup. And I'd imagine a lot of radar and probably high altitude surveillance aircraft and a lot of equipment monitoring radio, phone and internet traffic. Thing is, I don't have access to any of that stuff and you probably don't either. A suitable story will be spun that serves political purposes and the news will spread it. It may be the truth but it doesn't need to be. Pragmatic reasons may prefer a lightly served fib. People are looking for red lines and leverage.
 

Robert

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Ukraine are blaming Russia and Russia are blaming Ukraine.
 

Speelgoedmannetje

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And the west is pointing at Putin.
Isolating Russia further to force them to sell cheap gas and oil?
 

Glaucus

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I don't blame Putin directly, but it's most certainly the work of pro-Russians operating in or just outside of Ukraine. Big Ukrainian military transport planes have been shot down too recently and those require large missile batteries, not the kind that you'd carry on your shoulder. No, it's suspected that an SA-11/17 (BUK) would be required and there are reports that the pro-Russians over took a Ukrainian air-force base that had such weapons (of course, there are also reports that Putin gave them the weapons or that perhaps they stole them from Russian bases just across the boarder, but there's not much evidence for that). Also, yesterday I read that reporters saw a BUK system operating in a pro-Russian area.

Typically, these weapons are part of a large network that involves land and air born radar and typically orders to fire are given from a high command that evaluates all targets over time. Unknown targets would be identified visually using fighter planes. The pro-Russian rebels don't have any of that (I could argue that Russia could supply that kind of intel, but honestly I doubt that it has at least in this case). That would leave those operating the SA-11 with just a few hints as to what they are shooting at. The size and speed of the target and perhaps it's trajectory. If it was say, flying in from Russian airspace from the East, they may have chosen not to fire. But as it were, it seems like it flew right over from Western Ukraine and that probably was enough to make them conclude it was a Ukrainian military transport plane like they shot down last week. (Other airlines have issued statements that they've been avoiding Ukrainian airspace for months. The Malaysians were probably just trying to cut fuel costs and flew directly over. Big mistake). Most likely those doing the firing were ex-military but perhaps not really experts either and probably assumed all aircraft in the sky above Ukraine are Ukrainian military.

The argument could be made that Ukraine accidentally shot down the plane, perhaps believing that it was a Russian plane invading it's air space. That's unlikely and for many reasons. First, even if they did think it was a Russian military plane, they probably still wouldn't fire because, well, it's only one and two, it's instant war after that. Countries test each other this way all the time, Ukraine would likely complain about the violation and that would be it. But most importantly, Ukraine knew exactly what kind of plane it was because Ukrainian air traffic control was in contact with the plane. Also, pro-Russian rebels have no airforce and although Ukraine has prepared for a possible Russian invasion, they haven't engaged any airborn targets so far in this conflict. So little chance Ukraine accidentally shot it down. The other scenario is that Ukrain intentionally shot it down and perhaps pin it on Russia or it's supporters. I'm certain this is Fluffy's favorite theory as it shifts blame from his personal hero and onto his arch nemisis. Sure it's possible, but it would be a very risky play to say the least. Of coarse Ukrainian radar logs would have the plane, and it might have even picked up the missile (not sure that air traffic control radar is capable of picking up missiles). That could give us a good idea of where the missile came from, but you could argue that Ukraine doctored it or perhaps they will simply choose to never reveal it. However, that area would be covered by radar from other nations as well, including Russia itself. Ukraine would know that Russia could just as easily produce radar logs that could contradict Ukraines. And there are probably other nations in the area that have similar logs, they do all overlap each other. So it's a risky play that could very easily back fire and the risk is likely far more than the reward. And let's consider that for a second. Even if it was proven that pro-Russians shot down that plane, what could we expect to happen? Probably not a NATO invassion and Ukraine should know that. MAYBE if that plane was a US airlines, but even then I doubt it. They'd need to prove that they shot it down intentionally and that would be pretty impossible considering neither side would benefit from shooting down a Malaysian airlines plane. So ya, Ukraine could have tried the false flag angle but it would be a high-risk low-return endeavor. Sure we need to see all the evidence, particularly the radar logs before we can rule anything out, but it's probably not something we should bet on heavily.

So you could argue some blame should be placed on Putin for encouraging this level of rebel activity inside Ukraine, however overall this does appear as an accident. Accidents of this kind do happen, even when not at war. It wasn't that long ago that, funnily enough, a Ukrainian SA-200 shot down a passenger plane. The Ukrainians were conducting drills (in conjunction with Russia at the time) and they fired a test missile. It was going in the opposite way and they intended it to self destruct, but instead it turned around, found a target and hit it. Both Ukraine and Russia denied it but eventually Ukraine admitted it was their missile that downed the plane. It was an obvious accident albeit a pretty stupid one. And I think that's what we got here. Ukraine did offer compensation to victims for that earlier incident. It's unlikely to happen here I'm afraid.
 
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Glaucus

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Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17: Navigating airspace over warzones

Before the disaster, there appeared to be little reason for concern given MH17’s high altitude, noted Pierre Jeanniot, a former Air Canada CEO who once negotiated flight routes over conflict areas.

The International Civil Aviation Organization had also deemed the route, known as L980, a safe corridor.

Earlier in the week, however, Ukraine claimed that a military transport plane was downed by a Russian missile.

That should have raised red flags among risk-reduction analysts, said Arthur Rosenberg, a New York aviation lawyer.
It turns out that many European airlines still fly that route, but this particular flight was diverted 300 miles to avoid a storm. That sucks. But it does support the theory that this was just a big mistake, rebel SA-11 operators probably didn't expect a commercial flight on that path and just fired.
 

Glaucus

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And Putin blames Ukraine for the tragedy, which is to be expected, but it's how he blames them that is most interesting.

Putin Blames Malaysia Plane Crash On Ukraine's Renewal Of Military Campaign

"This tragedy would not have happened, if there had been peace on that land, or in any case if military operations in southeastern Ukraine had not been renewed," he said in televised comments.

"And without doubt the government of the territory on which it happened bears responsibility for this frightening tragedy," he said, adding that he had urged the Russian authorities to do everything possible to help with the investigation into the incident.
Well, he's kinda right, this would not have happened if it weren't for that awful war he's been fanning the flames of for the past few months. But what's most interesting is that he doesn't go so far as to blame the Ukrainians for shooting it down and in a way, without coming out to say it, he kinda accepts that it was shot down by the pro-Russians. If he felt that it was Ukraine that shot it down he most certainly would say so. No, he just thinks that Ukraine should take the blame because I guess they shouldn't react militarily to armed uprisings where rebels lead by foreign military fire GRAD rockets on their territory and use highly sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons to down (mostly) military planes. Bad, bad Ukraine!
 

FluffyMcDeath

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The other scenario is that Ukrain intentionally shot it down and perhaps pin it on Russia or it's supporters. I'm certain this is Fluffy's favorite theory as it shifts blame from his personal hero and onto his arch nemisis.
No, it's not on my list. It would be a very risky thing to do. Russia would be all over them and Russia is not, as the western media likes to claim, isolated. If they could uncover any hint that Kiev shot down the plane they wouldn't hesitate to use that and it's not like this is happening so far away from Russia that you could count on them not noticing. - which I see from reading further you pretty much agree with.

So you could argue some blame should be placed on Putin for encouraging this level of rebel activity inside Ukraine, however overall this does appear as an accident.
You could but you'd piss off the rebels who have repeatedly complained that Russia isn't doing anything. This is a local rebellion which, unlike the "local" rebellions we've helped, isn't sweeping across the country to take the capital. In fact, large parts of the Ukrainian army have been fairly unenthusiastic about the whole thing and families are complaining about their kids being press-ganged by Kiev to fight for something they don't particularly believe in. People would probably not even be fighting about this if it wasn't for the fact that the people we put into Kiev to manage the IMF loan need to keep as much of the country under their control as they can to pay it back. If it wasn't for that then there is no real law of nature that says the a country has to stay together.
 

Glaucus

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Ya, I'd say that's a pretty good assessment of things to date. Of coarse, it was written based on facts as reported and they don't seem to have insider knowledge. There is also the chance that the intended target was a military plane but the missile malfunctioned and hit the commercial airline.

Btw, I just read a very short article about a Ukrainian military jet being shot down over Ukraine by a Russian fighter jet. However, the source was very questionable and all attempts to find other sources came up empty. Still, that would be an interesting development.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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Well, he's kinda right, this would not have happened if it weren't for that awful war he's been fanning the flames of for the past few months.

Are the guys in the east fanning the war? No they are not. They are just sitting at home defending their homes and seeking autonomy. It's the Kiev forces that keep going over there and fighting them. Quite simply if Kiev would stay home there wouldn't be any war. The rebels aren't trying to take the capital the way the rebels in Syria and Iraq are or the way the rebels in Libya did. They are just trying to hold their own towns. If Kiev said "Let's talk" instead of "We will kill a hundred of you for each of our soldiers you kill" and other extremely belligerent language things would be different and this likely wouldn't have happened. However, the gang in Kiev can't really say that because we hired them to deliver us the whole country - that's their job.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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Btw, I just read a very short article about a Ukrainian military jet being shot down over Ukraine by a Russian fighter jet. However, the source was very questionable and all attempts to find other sources came up empty. Still, that would be an interesting development.

And it doesn't help when a passenger plane gets hit and goes down because googling becomes even muddier than usual with overlapping search terms.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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And the west is pointing at Putin.
Isolating Russia further to force them to sell cheap gas and oil?

And by the West that would primarily be the US. Western Europe is pretty cagey about the whole thing and generally understand they need to keep an open door to the East else they freeze in winter. The US wants to pry Europe away from Russia so any good opportunity to push on "moral" grounds is eagerly seized. Even so the Europeans aren't letting themselves get stampeded into anything. Basically they can't really do anything without US say-so because they are beholden to US banks but they also can't allow themselves to go along with every US push without a little push back because they are also beholden to Russian energy. Frankly, the banking problem is probably easier to solve. While America could technically overthrow the governments of Europe and could easily defeat Europe militarily if they decided to leave the US dollar and start their own system ... it would look very very bad.
 

FluffyMcDeath

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I'm certain this is Fluffy's favorite theory as it shifts blame from his personal hero and onto his arch nemisis.

By the way, I already mentioned my favourite (conspiracy) theory, and that is that it would be very easy to place a bomb on the plane at Schiphol where the security company is friendly and blow it up over eastern Ukraine with the added bonus that you down a plane from a country that isn't being particularly cooperative at the moment. If the Kiev regime gains control of the wreckage they can just make a finding that it was a missile. If the rebels gain control of the wreckage and find it was a bomb we yell "Russian propaganda!" Either way it's not easy to tell between the two (bomb vs missile) especially when people are already saying it's unlikely any evidence or remains of a missile will be found.

It's not dissimilar to plans that the US made to start a war with Cuba back in the day.
 

Glaucus

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And it doesn't help when a passenger plane gets hit and goes down because googling becomes even muddier than usual with overlapping search terms.
Well, not to worry, I did another search and guess what? I found what I was looking for. Interestingly, this may have happened just before the Malaysian plane was shot down.

Ukraine Accuses Russia of Shooting Down Fighter Jet

But surely that's just a coincidence.

At any rate, although I still think the Malaysian plane shooting was an accident, there are signs that Russia has escalated things drastically lately. And that's mostly because the Russian side is getting more desperate as the Ukrainian side is making some serious headway including taking back towns and securing some boarder crossings. We've seen division amongst pro-Russian groups and some have even handed in their weapons and asked for amnesty. Not looking good for those Russians, I mean, "pro-Russian Ukrainians". As a result we've seen a lot more heavy weapons coming in to Ukraine which I suppose is a last ditch effort to even the battlefield. So who knows, maybe that sa-11 was one that was taken from a Ukrainian base, or maybe it was a gift from Putin, irregardless it's believed Russians helped organize these anti-aircraft teams as the Ukrainian airforce has played an important role so far and a proper air defense would be key to Russian objectives. The Russians must believe strongly in this as it appears they've started actively shooting down Ukrainian fighters using their own fighters.

No, it's not on my list.
Well, at least we agree on something.
You could but you'd piss off the rebels who have repeatedly complained that Russia isn't doing anything.
Except that by "nothing" they really mean, full Russian annexation. Russia has otherwise done plenty.
This is a local rebellion which, unlike the "local" rebellions we've helped, isn't sweeping across the country to take the capital.
They're not sweeping across the country because they can't, but some rebels did promise marching in Kiev. But the big problem here is that it isn't local at all. The fact is pro-Russians aren't a huge majority in Eastern Ukraine. This isn't Crimea. Eastern Ukraine has been historically Eastern Ukraine, it's not a territory that some former Soviet Leader gifted to them. What we're seeing here is what's called a Fifth Column, which is when certain groups, usually foreign, operate clandestine in a manner to subvert the established authority. It's how empires are built and maintained fluffy. That's something you might want to read up on if you get the chance.

The fact is there's very little reason to believe that Eastern Ukrainians would have risen up so violently and so quickly. If we go back to before Yanukovych rejected the EU deal, polls were conducted to determine how Ukrainians felt about Russia and if they should join Russia. The results indicated that there was little desire for such a thing. But once the crisis began things changed and Russian propaganda went into high gear. Once Yanukovych was ousted things happen very quickly and some very interesting things happened - armed men appeared out of no where and some well known Russian commanders appeared with them. Some Russian spetznaz from the Georgia invasion a few years back suddenly appeared in Crimea and after that Eastern Ukraine. So no, this is not a local uprising and I'm certain you know this, you just choose to lie about it because that's what liars do.

Btw, do the Ukrainian pro-Russian groups have a leader? Yes they do. Who is that leader? I'm sure you know but I'll tell you anyway. The guy's name is Igor Girkin, also known as Igot Strelkov. He's well known enough to have his own wiki page and why not, he commands the Donbass People's Militia. Unfortunately for the people of Donbass, he probably answers to a higher authority outside of that region, or country even. Yes, it turns out he's a Russian colonel, officially part of the reserve but amazingly active none the less. He calls the shots in Eastern Ukraine, although he might be losing his influence as some groups have decided to no longer follow his every command (it seems they don't trust him, hmmm... I wonder why). This kinda makes your argument that it's a local uprising look like total BS.

And sorry, I fully reject the argument that it's all Kiev's fault. Sure they could have responded differently and probably should have, but one can't ignore that the pro-Russians were NOT just sitting at home minding their own business. No, they attacked Ukrainian institutions and even military bases and it's all very well documented. The fact that you'd venture such a completely stupid argument is mind boggling and only adds evidence to my own personal theory that your perceived intelligence is no more than being really good at parroting propaganda from your favorite propagandists without first applying some critical thought. In other words I fully believe you're a moron and probably don't deserve a second of my time but it's a slow day today so what the hell. The reality is that the pro-Russians in Eastern Ukraine are a sizable bunch but I see no reason to believe they are the clear majority. There are plenty of pro-Ukraines living in East Ukraine and on all accounts I've read they refer to the pro-Russians as terrorists. Not trying to paint them as terrorists, but want to point out that there is a deep divide even in Eastern Ukraine itself - which probably explains why Russia needs to intervene on a scale much greater than in Crimea.

Now, as for the IMF nonsense. Whatever evils the IMF and the EU may entail, they are far greater than what Russia had in store for Ukraine. Here in Winnipeg we have a very large Ukrainian population, possibly the biggest ethnic group around and that's dating back decades. Many of my work mates are Ukrainian and one thing I learned is that most Ukrainians feel that Russia has done all it can to influence Ukraine through corruption and organized crime. This isn't something new, this is old news, it's just what Russia does. The new leaders in Crimea appointed by Russia are well known gang leaders and that surprises no one. When Ukrainians say they want to break away from Russia they really want to break the corruption and the organized crime. Are you surprised that Tymoshenko didn't win? I'm not. Putin wanted her to win (he had suggested that she's make a good president that he could "work" with) probably because she was part of the old system and he probably had some dirt on her he could use. Ukrainians were probably wise not to re-elect her. Irregardless of what needs to be done to work with the EU and the IMF they consider that far better than dealing with Russia. And I fully agree with them on that. The fact is Russia screwed up and it's Ukrainians who are paying the price. That too is old news and just one more reason for Ukraine to distance itself.
 
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Glaucus

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By the way, I already mentioned my favourite (conspiracy) theory
No I'm not at all surprised that your favorite theory is to blame the jews, but I felt it was far to stupid for me to waste any time with. Btw, what's it like being a tool?
 
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metalman

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By the way, I already mentioned my favourite (conspiracy) theory

"Plane down. 295 passengers dead. Neocons squeal with delight."

Neocon = Jews!

blaming it on the Jews is ALWAYS Fluffy's favorite conspiracy
 

FluffyMcDeath

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No I'm not at all surprised that your favorite theory is to blame the jews, but I felt it was far to stupid for me to waste any time with. Btw, what's it like being a tool?
Why the heck do you think jews are to blame? Why do you conflate bad Jews with all of the Jews. Your broad brush is a rather anti-semitic attitude. Don't you understand that vast numbers of Jews are totally against what Israel does? You have to stop pretending that the crooks in Tel Aviv actually represent anyone other than themselves. Israel is NOT a Jew. It would be like me blaming you for what Harper does even though I know you a) don't always agree with him and b) have no real influence over what he does anyway.

How about I blame you for all the disgusting things that our mining companies have done to third worlders. Is that your fault? Would it be fair to blame you? So if someone says that Canada supports barbaric behaviour by its mining companies are they talking about you? No, but if someone talks about how badly behaved Israel is you just assume that all Jews agree with what Israel is doing so I must be talking about Jews. It's a cheap shot attempt at a debate ender and it's deeply unfair and offensive to Jews. Remember when you were against the Iraq war and if someone couldn't come up with a good counter arguement they'd just yell "You're anti-American" and you knew right away they were an idiot who was out of arguments? Same thing.
 
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